Rubber rebounds as expected, forecast will continue to rise
[Fundamental] During the May 1st period, the Fed’s June rate hike is expected to heat up, and the peak of the US tightening cycle is higher than expected. The US dollar has strengthened sharply, and major industrial products have weakened during the holiday season. Peripheral natural rubber has not been affected by the weakening of other industrial products, and its performance is relatively strong, mainly due to Thailand's desire to join forces with other major Southeast Asian rubber producing countries to form an alliance to control the news of natural rubber prices. From past experience, the measures taken by the Rubber Alliance are all palliative, and the thunder and rain are small, which has a certain impact on the short-term price, and the impact on the medium and long-term is often negative. This time Thailand wants to join forces with the other three major rubber-producing countries to control the price of rubber. Is there any new substantive bailout measures, and we need to wait patiently. Before the details of the new bailout measures in the four countries, we can’t evaluate the news. The medium- and long-term supply and demand relationship can have much impact, but the news has just come out, far from being digested by the market, and certainly has a certain impact on the short-term trend of the rubber. In addition, the speculative new air pressure before the holiday has not been completely withdrawn, and the supply is good after the holiday. Under the influence of rumors, the possibility of liquid recovery of the short-covering funds will increase sharply, or lead to a counter-extraction of the futures price. At least before the four countries meet to discuss how to effectively control the price of plastics, the new air will not dare to take the initiative to attack. In the short-term, the willingness to save the market from the major suppliers during the holiday season will form a certain support for the price of rubber. Before the details are unpublished, the rebound height is also limited, and the probability of returning to the front of the horizontal platform is higher.
[Trends forecast] Rubber rebounded on Tuesday, accurate pre-judgment before the internal group festival. In the intraday, the rubber low-term consolidation interval, the author analyzed, rubber has a certain policy speculation after May, the current position is not large, easy to rise and fall It is predicted that there will be a wave of upswings this week, and the operation will fall back shortly.
Double-focus rises synchronously, and forecasts are expected to fall back
[Fundamental] Last week, the inventory of the four major coke ports increased by 44,500 tons to 3.478 million tons. The stock of port coke increased slightly, and the enthusiasm of traders was high. Last week, coking coal port stocks increased by 57,000 tons to 2.3 million tons, and market purchases increased as prices fell. Last week, the steel mill's coke was purchased on demand, and coke stocks fell. Independent coking enterprises fell into losses, operating rates fell, and continued to destock the coking coal. As coking coal prices subsided, the profits of independent coking enterprises began to improve. Last week, the national blast furnace operating rate rose slightly to 66.68%. From May to June, the National Development and Reform Commission will organize the steel industry to resolve excess capacity and prevent the special inspection of the “strip steelâ€, which will form intermittent suppression of the overall supply. Last week, the steel transaction was better than the same period of the previous year. The steel social inventories fell by nearly 850,000 tons, and the steel social inventories have dropped to a reasonable range.
[Trendment forecast] The first trading day after the coke coking coal festival rose simultaneously. In the intraday, the recent low-scoring area of ​​the double-focus is currently in a pressure-intensive area. The upper volume was attacked yesterday, and the second upswing was tested after the bottoming. Predicting the current position will also be frustrated, and the operation will be short-term layout.
Beans and leeks are open simultaneously, and the current overall weakness will also call back
[Fundamental] It is reported that the US Gulf has arrived at special lifting equipment for the shipment of soybean meal to expand the capacity of beans (3821, 8.00, 0.21%). The crane can ship barge soybean meal to the export-class ship, so the market continues to be rumored. Orders for Argentine soybean meal were transferred to the United States, and after the capacity expansion, the US Gulf can ship more soybean meal to the EU. Usually American oil plants are seasonally shut down in April-May. The crusher said that the April and May shutdowns will reduce the crushing capacity by 0.1 billion pu, but the oil mill's lucrative and soy pressing positions will make the downtime, but many oil plants will not change the start-up plan. Pressers say that downtime in April and May will reduce crush capacity by 0.1 billion pu. A further shutdown in August could result in a cumulative reduction of 0.2 billion bushes. The USDA announced that the crush in March was 1.822 billion pu, which was lower than the expected value of 183.2 million pu. The market believes that the March crush data will give the USDA room for increase in the May report, at least 0.2 billion to 1.9 billion pu, and the April report of the US farmers is 1.70 billion pu, while the industry generally believes that Chen Zuo’s crush will reach 20.10-20.20 billion.
[Trends forecast] Bean 粕 粕 åŒæ¥ åŒæ¥ åŒæ¥ 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕 粕Pressing and finishing, it is predicted that there will be a callback today, and the operation will be short-selling.
Pp, L, pta, bitumen and methanol are on the rise as expected, and they are treated in the near future.
[Fundamental] As of May 1, the average price of methanol in the northwest region is 2,720 yuan / ton, 3,255 yuan (+20) yuan / ton in East China, 3,225 (+20) yuan / ton in South China, and 2,700 yuan / ton in North China. Spot methanol prices continue to be strong. As of April 27, the inventory of Huadong Port was 30.24 (-1.54) tons, the inventory of South China Port was 7.98 (-0.65) tons, and the inventory of Taicang was 13. 14 (-1.84) tons, Zhangjiagang stocks are 7 (+1.4) tons, and Northwest China stocks are 10.28 (+1.5) tons. As of April 27, CFR China's main port methanol offer 398 (+7) US dollars / ton (about 3190 yuan / ton), FOB Rotterdam offer 312 (+2) euro / ton, FOB US Gulf offer 387.9 US dollars / ton . According to statistics, after the end of April, there may be 9.26 million tons of methanol units restarted, or only 2.8 million tons of methanol units will be inspected one after another. In terms of device capacity, the restart capacity is greater than the repair capacity, or the methanol plant operating rate is likely to rise and fall. From a statistical point of view, the operating rate of the methanol plant in May-July may be characterized by a stepwise upward shift. Therefore, it is basically predictable that after the end of April, the supply pressure of the methanol plant operating rate may be highlighted.
[Trends forecast] pp, L, pta, asphalt and methanol will rise sharply after the festival. We will rise sharply after the analysis of the chemical festival. Yesterday, the market is in line. In the intraday, the chemical industry has been oscillating along the nearby range. After the rise, it is approaching the pressure-intensive area again. In the short term, the overall situation is still strong, and the operation is slow and short.
Threaded hot-rolled iron ore is on schedule as high as the current operation.
[Fundamental] In the week of April 27, the utilization rate of rebar capacity of national building steel mills was 66.42%, down 2.3 percentage points on a week-on-week basis, and a slight decrease of 1.92 percentage points on a month-on-month basis. In terms of output, in the week of April 27, the output of rebar in the national building materials steel mill was 3.0299 million tons, down 105,000 tons on a week-on-week basis, and falling by 87,500 tons month-on-month. The decline in rebar production was mainly due to the impact of environmental restrictions on production. Tangshan City requires enterprises to implement the non-heating season peak production, steel industry sintering machine, shaft furnace limited production of 50%. At the same time, Jiangsu launched a one-month special action for joint environmental law enforcement in the eight cities along the Yangtze River. At present, many steel mills in Jiangsu have reduced production, especially in the Xuzhou area. In the long run, environmental protection will remain one of the main variables limiting steel mills' production. In the week of April 27, the stock of rebar intermediate links was 9.7730 million tons, a decrease of 890,500 tons on a week-on-week basis, and a decrease of 3.665 million tons on a month-on-month basis. Among them, the social stock of rebar was 7,519,100 tons, a decrease of 526,400 tons from last week; the stock of rebar mills was 2,251,200 tons, a decrease of 364,100 tons from last week. Current social inventories are lower than the same period in 2014, and steel mill inventories are lower than the same period in 2015. Last week, rebar purchases were 442.31 million tons, better than the same period last year. The downstream continued active transactions, indicating that demand was over-repressed in March, which appeared in April. Three weeks after April, the destocking accelerated, and the weekly inventory decline of 800,000-1 million tons occurred continuously. At the same time, downstream transactions were active. The concentrated release of demand in April provided support for steel prices to remain strong.
[Trend forecast] Thread hot coil and iron ore are sharply higher on Tuesday, the internal group is accurately prejudged, and more than one city is in the next round. In the intraday, the black system is in a rebound trend in the near future, and the stock is rising synchronously after the holiday. After the bottom triangle area continues to explore, the author analyzes that the recent black needs to be treated more strongly, the empty orders are not easy to intervene, and it is predicted that today will continue to be stronger and stronger, and the operation will be followed by more points.
Copper, zinc, nickel and aluminum are under pressure overall, and the recent operation is mainly
[Fundamental] In 2018, global economic growth supported the demand for nickel. Due to the continuous increase in stainless steel capacity in China and Indonesia, global demand for nickel is expected to increase by 6% year-on-year. Nickel alloys, driven by expansion in the aerospace, oil and gas industries, will once again show strong demand. However, the continued increase in Indonesian NPI capacity and the continued increase in the country's ore export quotas may lead to accelerated supply growth. Under the long-term trend, the new energy sector has become a bright future for global nickel consumption. In 2017, the global sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.22 million units, an increase of nearly 60% year-on-year, of which China sold 770,000 units, accounting for 63%. It is estimated that by 2020, the global sales of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 3.5 million units, and the demand for nickel will increase by three times. The nickel market is short-term neutral and long-term. Although we expect strong demand growth in 2018, Indonesia's NPI production increase and Indonesia and the Philippines' ore exports rebounded, and the nickel market supply gap is expected to narrow from 105,000 tons in 2017 to 15,000 tons. Although the battery industry has broad prospects, it is still the driving factor for the relative margin of global nickel demand. In the medium and long term, the contradiction between supply and demand of refined nickel supply and incremental new demand points will continue to increase, and the premium of refined nickel to ferronickel will continue to expand. Nickel price risk points are weather conditions and changes in Philippine policy. This may hinder the Philippines and Indonesia from transporting ore to China, and the Philippines may take regulatory action to re-adjust its policy on the mining industry.
[Trends forecast] Copper, aluminum, zinc and nickel rebounded slightly on Tuesday. In the intraday, the recent market volatility is intense. On the fundamentals, the US dollar is stronger, copper is under pressure, and nickel is expected to boost in the long-term. The zinc and aluminum are dragged down by stocks in the short term. Strong, non-ferrous, recent overall pressure, operationally recommended high-altitude
Gold and silver fell sharply as expected, predicting a small rebound today
[Fundamental] Gold futures prices opened at $1314.6 per ounce on Tuesday, closing at $1304.0 per ounce, hitting a high of $1316.3 per ounce, and falling at a low of $1301.5 per ounce. Gold's gold side performance is very strong. In the Asian market, the gold in the morning (GOLD) will follow the hourly level of MA5, and the short trend lines will be arranged in an empty manner. The downtrend channel of Bollinger will continue to expand. The bottom of each wave of gold prices will not break the high point. This is the weakest day for many parties in the past few days. In the evening, the gold (GOLD) space continued, and the price of gold once approached the $1300/oz mark, which was the lowest since March. The US plate touched the $1301.7/oz line and the small space bottomed out. The end of the market closed at the end of the day. Low.
[Trends forecast] Gold and silver opened sharply lower on Tuesday. We have judged that the precious metals will fall sharply after the festival. The market is perfectly catering to the market yesterday. The analysis of the sea has caused some market panic caused by various factors to ease. The dollar has strengthened and the precious metals have been under pressure. The current position is at the lowest point of the year, and it is predicted to stabilize and rebound today.
Power coal returned to the weak this week, operating on rallies
[Fundamental] The price of thermal coal in April has basically fallen. The price of thermal coal in Zaozhuang, Shandong Province is now around 640-650 yuan/ton (vehicle price). Note: calorific value 5500 ash 18 volatile points 30 sulfur points 1.40-1.50 Shandong Province Tengzhou thermal coal price is around 645-655 yuan / ton (vehicle price). Note: calorific value 5500 ash 17-20 volatiles 32 sulfur points 0.8. The price of thermal coal in Huozhou, Shanxi Province is around 630-650 yuan / ton (including vehicle tax). Note: calorific value 5500 ash 18-24 volatile points 27-28 sulfur points 1.20. Shanxi Liulin thermal coal price is around 540-550 yuan / ton (vehicle price). Note: calorific value 5500 ash 19 volatile points 20-25 sulfur points 1.20 Inner Mongolia Wuhai thermal coal price is around 370-380 yuan / ton (vehicle price). Industry chain: The supply of thermal coal is relatively loose and the inventory is high. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the country's raw coal output in March was 290.22 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. From January to March, the cumulative production of raw coal in the country was 804.54 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%. Coupled with the off-season demand for thermal coal, the market is pessimistic and has a wait-and-see attitude. The port coal is weak and the daily consumption is stable.
[Trends forecast] Power coal fell back on Tuesday. In the intraday, thermal coal was rebounded sharply by policy boost. After returning to the upper edge of the bottom section, it was again subjected to short-selling continuous correction. The author analyzed that the thermal coal policy is favorable. Digestion, clear signs of trend change, will return to the weak in the near future, operating on the 600 rallies short
The low glass market will continue, short-selling in recent operations
In terms of glass spot, the spot manufacturers in March were very strong, and the spot price of Shahe generally rose by 40 yuan/ton in March. The purpose of the price is to help the winter storage traders digest the inventory. Prior to the winter storage, the manufacturer promised the trader that the spot loss before April 1 was borne by the manufacturer. However, the pressure on the spot market was already very large, and the inventory of manufacturers reached a record high. Gross profit also reached the highest level in the past six years. Therefore, after April 1st, some manufacturers took the lead in lowering prices to ease their inventory pressure. After that, the glass factory price alliance that has been maintained for one year has officially broken, and glass factories across the country have cut prices. In the most recent month, most glass factories generally cut the price by about 80-120 yuan / ton. With the rebound of manufacturers' price cuts and futures prices, the spot price of glass futures has been greatly reduced. By April 19th, the FG1805 contract sticker glass has been narrowed to a minimum of 30 yuan/ton. In the case of heavy pressure in the spot, the glass longs can only leave. So far, the total position of FG1805 has been less than 20,000 hands, and there are still nearly 5.4 million tons of warehouse receipts on the disk surface. It can be judged that the glass repairing discount is over.
[Trend forecast] Glass 1809 fell back on Tuesday and closed down. In the intraday, the glass bottom shock consolidation. On the fundamental side, the downstream demand for glass is still slowly released. The rebound lacks certain support. The short-term low market is expected to continue. , operate on the 1400 below the rallies short
(Editor: Chen Hao HF072)
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