Focus on G20 Hangzhou Summit: Focus on improving global economic and financial governance
On August 18, 2016, the container truck fleet carrying the goods departed from Tianjin Port Pacific Terminal, marking the start of the trial operation of China-Mongolia-Russia international road freight.
People's vision
On September 24, 2015, the Eurasian Economic Forum was held in Xi'an. The picture shows the visit to the Pakistani handicraft area at the forum.
People's vision
On July 26, 2016, the East Asia Ocean Cooperation Platform Huangdao Forum was held in Qingdao. The 10 ASEAN countries and China, Japan and Korea have developed in depth. The picture shows the 1:1 model of the "Dragon" in the deep sea manned submersible.
People's vision
Leading policy coordination, seeking pragmatic cooperation
Li Yuanfang
Macroeconomic policy coordination is a core content of the G20 economic and policy cooperation. It not only plays a decisive role in coping with the crisis, but also plays a leading role in the post-crisis era, leading the global economy to be strong and sustainable. Key work to balance the growth path.
However, after experiencing peak performance during the crisis, the effectiveness and influence of the G20's macroeconomic policy coordination declined in the post-crisis era. This decline is partly due to the natural consequences of the economy going to normal, and more importantly because of the obvious differentiation of the economic challenges faced by the various economies within the G20, which in turn led to the differentiation of macroeconomic policies. The close linkage between the global economy and financial markets has made the spillover effects of domestic macroeconomic policies in major economies an unavoidable challenge to the domestic economic regulation of other countries. The contradictions in the field of macroeconomic policy coordination have surfaced.
In recent years, the G20 presidencies and other countries have been actively exploring ways to promote the G20 macroeconomic cooperation during the normal period, including enriching the issues of concern and establishing increasingly deep and complete cooperation mechanisms. At present, G20 macroeconomic policy coordination mainly includes four aspects: one is to reduce global imbalances; the other is to strengthen the coordination of fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies to promote short-term global market stability and growth; the third is through structural reform and infrastructure investment. To promote potential growth in the medium term; the fourth is to emphasize the sustainability and inclusiveness of macroeconomic policies, such as fiscal sustainability issues and inclusive issues of growth policies.
In order to strengthen the implementation of macroeconomic policy coordination results, the G20 also strengthened the mutual evaluation process among its members and established an accountability assessment mechanism. This has introduced greater pressure from the peer review and public opinion for the G20 to reinforce the political will of the economy to implement its policy commitments.
At present, the recovery of the world economy is still very fragile and faces complex and difficult challenges from many aspects. The potential growth rate in the world has slowed down significantly compared with the pre-crisis period. Addressing these basic challenges at the global economic level requires not only policy cooperation among countries, but also synergy between different policy areas.
Since the beginning of this year, the G20 has made pragmatic efforts in many aspects. First, the G20 realized that the previous macroeconomic policies were over-reliant on monetary policy, and the current low interest rate and even negative interest rate environment may have a negative impact on the economy. It began to explicitly emphasize the joint use of various tools such as monetary, fiscal and structural reforms in the short and medium term. co-operate. Secondly, the G20 is the result of strengthening the structural reform, clarifying the nine major areas of the G20 structural reform, the guiding principles for the reform of each key area, and the quantitative measurement indicators. This is a necessary step for strengthening the efforts to implement structural reforms in the G20 economies and specifically addressing structural barriers that affect potential growth. Third, as the rotating presidency of this year, China has included innovative growth as a key issue in its agenda, leading the G20 economies to pay more attention to the implementation of policy actions to enhance economic growth potential in the medium term, to promote the transfer of international technology exchanges and cooperation, and to emphasize industrialization. The inclusiveness of the process. This issue is not only directly related to global growth, but also broadens the G20's policy cooperation space, and has a strong kinetic energy as a standing issue to continue at the G20 level.
At present, the coverage of the G20 macroeconomic policy has gradually increased, and coordination between policy areas has received more and more attention. This development is closely related to the trend of the global economic situation, and it also poses a greater challenge to the ability of the rotating presidency to guide and grasp the agenda. In the future, the G20 still has more room for efforts in its own mechanism construction.
Reforming the financial structure, stimulating economic vitality
Xiong Aizong
The outbreak of the 2008 international financial crisis led to the convening of the G20 First Leaders Summit. Countries have formed a consensus to reform the current international financial system, promote global financial stability, and strive to restore world economic growth. Since then, the reform of the international financial architecture has become an important and permanent issue for the G20. During the G20 presidency in Mexico in 2012, the International Financial Architecture Working Group was established, which provided a new support for the G20 level to promote the improvement of the international financial architecture. Since then, the work of the working group has been stagnant. In 2016, China, as the G20 presidency, restarted the International Financial Architecture Working Group and continued to improve the international financial architecture at the G20 level.
The flaws in the international financial architecture are one of the important reasons for the outbreak of the international financial crisis, which is also the initial driving force for its reform. However, the old problems have not yet been fundamentally resolved, and new risks are constantly emerging. There is an urgent need to further improve the international financial architecture to deal with them. On the one hand, it should effectively curb the current challenges of rising financial market risks and gradually improve the ability of countries to withstand risks; on the other hand, they should actively promote the reform of the international financial system and mechanism to establish a sound, sustainable and balanced growth of the global economy. Supported by the international monetary system and the international financial framework. Therefore, the current international financial architecture reform should not only be able to cope with the short-term risks that currently appear, but also be able to give design ideas to the long-term governance mechanism.
In 2016, the International Financial Architecture Working Group focused on five major issues: promoting the International Monetary Fund (IMF) share and governance structure reform; improving sovereign debt restructuring; strengthening cross-border capital flow supervision and management; improving the global financial safety net; and raising special withdrawals. The role of power. These five issues focus not only on the current short-term risks, but also on the extension of the G20 issues from short-term issues to deep-seated and long-term issues.
We will improve sovereign debt restructuring, strengthen supervision and management of cross-border capital flows, and improve the global financial safety net, etc., and focus on short-term risks. At present, the risks in the international financial market are still rising. The divergence of monetary policy in major economies has caused cross-border capital flows to intensify. In particular, emerging and developing economies have experienced increased volatility in their foreign exchange markets and stock markets due to large capital outflows. The high-speed flow of cross-border capital has also caused the financial risk correlation and contagion of countries to rise, and the financial risks of local or individual countries are more likely to have a shock effect on a global scale. At the same time, affected by the international financial crisis, the scale of global debt has been rising, becoming a new risk point for the world economy and an important obstacle to the recovery of the world economy. In order to curb the above risks, it is necessary to strengthen the supervision and management of cross-border capital flows, and at the same time improve the sovereign debt restructuring system and maintain the sustainability of debt.
Improving the global financial safety net is an important means to improve the ability of the international community to resist financial risks. The current financial safety net mainly includes four levels: global arrangements based on IMF; regional financial arrangements; bilateral currency swap arrangements; and foreign exchange reserves of countries. The improvement of the global financial network is mainly to provide countries with more available intervention funds to cope with macroeconomic fluctuations and financial turmoil, so as to achieve crisis prevention and crisis relief. In this regard, in addition to continuing to improve the self-construction of financial security networks at all levels, the International Financial Architecture Working Group also studies how to strengthen coordination and cooperation between different financial safety nets.
Promoting IMF share and governance structure reform and upgrading the role of special drawing rights is more focused on the long-term. The reform goal of the IMF share and governance structure is to adapt to changes in the current global economic landscape and gradually increase the representation and voice of developing countries and emerging markets. Although it is mainly to promote the Fifteenth share reform inspection in the near future, improving the status of developing countries and emerging markets in global economic governance is the work that should be continued in the next few years. The purpose of upgrading the SDR function is to enhance the stability and resilience of the international monetary system, which is a long-term job.
Every outbreak of the financial crisis will trigger discussions on the reform of the international financial architecture. A major difference between this reform and the previous one is that the current mismatch between the global economic governance structure and the global economic structure has hindered the release of the vitality of the world economy. With the joint efforts of China and G20 members, the 2016 International Financial Architecture Working Group discussed a series of issues and made important progress. At present, this work is far from over. The G20 should further promote the improvement of global financial governance, enhance the ability of countries to cope with global challenges, and continuously release the vitality of the world economy.
Promote consensus formation, help structure adjustment
Yang Panpan
The main problem facing the current global economy is a slowdown in structural growth. In adopting structural reform policies to enhance the potential and resilience of the economy, the consensus reached by various countries is increasing, and objectively enhancing the status of structural reform in the G20 issue. Structural reforms have been combined with monetary and fiscal policies as the G20's most important tool to promote strong, balanced, sustainable and inclusive growth.
The structural reform issue was born as part of the growth framework at the 2009 Pittsburgh Summit, but since the global economy was still at its most critical period of the crisis, structural reforms did not become the focus of policy coordination across countries. The 2010 Seoul Summit presented the first Multi-Year Development Action Plan with a focus on structural reforms, but with the outbreak of the European debt crisis, structural reforms have not yet become the focus of the growth framework. It was not until the Brisbane Summit in 2014 that the status of structural reforms was significantly improved. The summit passed the G20 five-year medium-term growth target. From 2013 to 2018, the G20 countries’ overall GDP was added through various structural reform measures. Increase by 2%. In 2016, China, as the G20 chairman, further enhanced its position in structural reform. According to the third communiqué of the finance ministers and central bank governors in July this year, the G20 has approved the “deepening structural reform agendaâ€, establishing structural reform priority areas and structural reform guiding principles, and building a structural reform indicator system to enable countries to grow. The strategy more includes structural reforms.
Structural reforms cover a wide range of topics. Currently, priority areas for G20 countries include: innovation, product market reform, labor market reform, infrastructure investment, banking system reform and capital market development, fiscal sustainability, and trade and investment openness.
Innovation is the cornerstone of a country's potential economic growth and the key to a country's competitiveness in the future. A country can promote innovation by increasing R&D spending, promoting private sector participation in innovation, and promoting industry-university-research cooperation to enhance results transformation. National coordination focuses on collaborative innovation and promotes the diffusion of innovative technological achievements; product market reform is the basis of structural reform, and whether the distortion of product market can be removed largely determines the effectiveness of other structural reforms.
Infrastructure investment is a priority in countries' structural reform measures because it can break the bottleneck of economic growth in the medium and long term, increase the economic growth potential, and increase economic growth in the short term. At present, G20 countries are actively collaborating in the infrastructure sector to strengthen the overall synergy and cooperation of various infrastructure interconnection projects through the establishment of a global infrastructure interconnection alliance; banking system reform and capital market development to improve financial system stability and capital operation efficiency It is of utmost importance that countries' current priorities include the completion of the Basel III framework by the end of 2016, the vulnerability of asset management business structures, global anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing, financial market infrastructure construction, and inclusive financial development; Sustained reform measures will guarantee flexible fiscal policy. Countries are committed to exploring growth-friendly taxation policies and spending policies, and cooperate on tax-based erosion and profit transfer (BEPS) inclusive frameworks; trade and investment openness is the synergy of countries. In the strongest area of ​​structural reform, this year's newly established Trade and Investment Working Group is committed to promoting greater cooperation among countries in trade and investment, and has developed the G20 Global Trade Growth Strategy and the G20 Global Investment Guiding Principles.
The G20 provides a new platform for countries to coordinate in the field of structural reforms, injecting new momentum into global economic growth. Looking to the future, in order to make structural reforms more effective, we need to deepen cooperation in the following areas: bridging the gap between the priority areas of structural reforms in countries and the actual reform initiatives of countries; and determining the priority areas and priorities for structural reform coordination based on the principle of maximizing returns. Provide guidance for the coordination of national structural reform measures with monetary and fiscal policies; and promote the sharing of national reform experience.
(The authors of this edition are the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
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