(Original title: Three ministries and commissions issued a letter to develop agricultural service industry related companies are concerned)
Three ministries and commissions issued a document to develop agricultural service industry related companies are concerned
Recently, the Ministry of Agriculture, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Development of Agricultural Productive Service Industry", proposing to actively expand agricultural market information services, agricultural resources supply services, agricultural green production technology services, and agricultural waste recycling. Use services, agricultural waste resource utilization services, agricultural machinery operations and maintenance services, agricultural product marketing services, etc. The industry said that the document proposed a number of key tasks and specific measures for the development of agricultural production services. Agricultural machinery and agricultural water conservation are the service areas supported by this opinion, and related companies are expected to benefit, such as Daxie Water Saving and Yituo Shares.
Big water saving: PPP project is progressing steadily, and high performance can be expected
Dalat Water Saving 300021
Research Institute: Zhongtai Securities Analyst: Chen Qi Date of Composing: 2017-07-14
Event: The company released the semi-annual report performance forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first half of 2017 will be 2658~322.7 million yuan, up 40%~70% year-on-year, and the company will sign a new 571 million yuan in the first half of the year.
In the first half of the year, PPP orders steadily advanced, and the three expenses increased slightly. The company is currently in the transition period of business model, from the traditional mode to the PPP mode. In the first half of the year, a new 571 million yuan was signed, of which PPP projects are close to 400 million yuan, mainly including Shuangliao, Axe, Alxa League and other projects. However, due to the current PPP project in the framework of the signing of the agreement and the pre-project development period, the sales expenses and management expenses are relatively large. In addition, the Chongqing Ba Shu water-saving and Anhui 皖禹 water-saving new start-up expenses, the company's three expenses increased slightly in the first half of the year. This led to a slower growth in the first half of the year than in the first quarter.
From the perspective of the industry, under the current PPP tide, the market for farmland water conservancy market has opened, and the leading companies have shown a strong and strong situation. (1) Under the strong support of national policies and the financing needs of farmland water conservancy, farmland water conservancy PPP enters the golden development period; (2) the market space of farmland water conservancy 100 billion is opened under the PPP mode, the commercialization of farmland water conservancy continues to advance, and the market penetration rate is steadily (3) We believe that leading companies with national layout and perfect technical reserves will become the most beneficiaries of this round of farmland water conservancy commercialization, and the market share is expected to increase rapidly, showing a strong and strong situation.
We are optimistic about the main logic of Daxie Water Savings: First, the company's industrial chain layout continues to expand, from traditional farmland water conservancy to integrated water conservancy, and through the operation of the water conservancy fund and mature PPP operation experience, it is expected to achieve PPP orders. Explosive growth; Secondly, the company's national layout will help its domestic market share to increase to 25% in the next three years, while overseas business will add to the company's performance; finally, the PPP project represented by the Yunnan Yuanmou project will continue to fall. In the period, the company's performance continued to grow.
In the first half of the year, the company has reserved a large number of PPP projects. According to the seasonal construction of farmland water conservancy projects and the delay in revenue recognition of PPP projects, we believe that the company's large orders will confirm revenues in the third and fourth quarters and achieve rapid growth in performance. We expect the company to achieve sales revenue of 17.28, 24.43, and 3.073 billion yuan in 2017-19, up 67.89%, 41.40%, and 25.79% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company is 1.32, 2.37, and 355 million yuan, an increase of 118.18% and 79.32. %, 50.10%, corresponding EPS is 0.17, 0.30, 0.45 yuan, giving 35 times PE in 2018, corresponding to the target price of 10.5 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Huaying Agriculture: Cost control to make safety mats, value-added in the entire industry chain
Huaying Agriculture 002321
Research Institute: Northeast Securities Analyst: Li Qiang Date of Completion: 2017-08-23
Event summary: On August 18th, the company released the semi-annual report for 2017. From January to June, the company realized operating income of 1.649 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.44%; net profit of 302.394 million yuan, down 56.18%; net profit of returning to home was 16.861 million yuan. The year-on-year decrease was 75.21%; the earnings per share was 0.03 yuan. The first three quarters of performance forecast, the company's net profit for the first nine months of 2017 is expected to be 20 million yuan ~ 500 million yuan, compared with 90.25.60 million yuan in the same period of last year, down 78.27% ~ 45.69%.
Production in the first half of the year has increased significantly, and profit in the second half is expected to be released. In the first half of the year, due to the bird flu epidemic, insufficient market demand and weak consumption, the price of poultry was sluggish, and the proportion of frozen ducks and frozen chickens with a sharp increase in output decreased. The output of frozen ducks and frozen chickens in January-June was 75,878 tons. 2,1965 tons increased by 69.45% and 130.63% respectively, with sales of 549 million yuan and 183 million yuan respectively, up -16.07% and 58.20% year-on-year respectively. The increased output was sold in stock at an appropriate price. In the second half of the year, driven by seasonal warming and rising chicken prices, the company's frozen duck and frozen chicken products are expected to increase in volume and price and release profits.
Cost control is square, and business thinking is avant-garde. Corn, soybean meal, wheat, soybean oil and down are the main raw material costs for the company's products. In the first half of the year, corn prices rose by 13%, wheat fell by about 6%, and soybean meal and soybean oil fell by 15%-17%. A quarterly report and a semi-annual report showed that the company's prepayments and inventories increased significantly. In addition to the increase in poultry stocks, the company acquired corn in the northeast in the first quarter. The subsidiary Huaying Xintang increased the purchase volume of feathers while on corn and down. In the past six months, the company has continued to rise, and the rate of duck down has increased by more than 50%. This shows that the company has a good grasp of the timing of purchasing raw materials. In order to avoid excessive fluctuations in raw material prices, the company began to carry out hedging business in 2016. The initial futures margin investment does not exceed 20 million yuan. The leverage property of commodity futures can control the raw material cost of several times the margin, optimistic about the future cost of the company. Control effect.
The entire industrial chain layout, smooth cycle fluctuations, and increase added value. The company has established a complete industrial chain integrating ancestral breeding ducks and parental breeding duck/chicken breeding and hatching, commodity duck/chicken breeding, poultry products and their products processing and sales, feed production and sales. The means of regulating the production and sales ratio of various products in the industrial chain such as duck/chicken, frozen products and cooked foods enhances the company's ability to resist cyclical downturns and share industry sentiment.
Risk warning: the price of duck, chicken and down products fell, and the bird flu epidemic.
Longping Hi-Tech: The growth turning point is further confirmed, the leading seed enterprise stronger Hengqiang
Long Ping Hi-Tech 000998
Research institute: Zhongtai Securities analyst: Chen Qi Date of writing: 2017-08-23
Rice seeds continue to increase in volume and the incremental market opens quickly. In the report period, the company's rice seed business income was 688 million yuan, up 44.58% year-on-year. The increase in rice seed income was mainly from the sales volume of Longliangyou and Jingliangyou series: the sales of the 2016/17 sales season series reached 14 million kilograms. A sales season increased by about 90%. The company's hybrid rice seed sales totaled approximately 30 million kg, an increase of nearly 40%. At the same time, the incremental market in South China's rice region was rapidly opened: According to grassroots research, the sales of new products in the South China rice region in the second quarter reached a large breakthrough, with sales of about 2 million to 3 million kilograms and a profit of about 40 million yuan. According to the 2017/18 sales season, the company's product order is further advanced and the sales situation is hot. The comprehensive sales of the new product series 2017/18 sales season reached 2,400 kg, achieving a growth of around 70%.
The performance of corn seeds has been declining due to industry factors, but the launch of highly competitive new products is expected to bottom out. Affected by the reduction of corn planting surface, the company's corn seed realized operating income of 95 million yuan during the reporting period, down 51.85% year-on-year. However, in the sales season, the company expects to launch 10 highly competitive new corn products: From the 2017 national trial situation, the company's 10 new corn products are generally 10% higher than the previous generation's main product Zhengdan 958, and the Huanghuaihai area The number of varieties with high resistance, resistance and medium resistance reached 5, 1, and 1 respectively. At the same time, the company's new products are mostly Zhengdan 958 varieties, which have strong resistance to high temperature. Therefore, it is expected that there will be better field performance in the climate background with frequent heat damage this year. The outstanding quality superimposed on the efficient operation of the company, the company's bottoming out of corn is highly certain, and the net growth of the promotion area is expected to reach 20-30 million mu.
The quantity and quality of rice seed stocks have doubled, and the outreach mergers and acquisitions have been continuously promoted, which strongly supports the company's main speed increase. In terms of quantity, during the reporting period, the company reviewed 61 rice varieties, accounting for 34.27% of the national total, and 29 varieties approved by the provincial level. In terms of quality, the rice quality of the three varieties of rice varieties of the company reached the national standard, accounting for 50% of the country; the average grade of resistance to rice blast is 3.7, far superior to the resistance level of about 6 in the industry; in addition, the number of varieties in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and the South China rice area reached 12 and 11, respectively. The proportion of the country is 30.8% and 91.7%, and the scope of regional certification has been continuously expanded, which strongly supports the continuous expansion of the incremental market. At the same time, in the report period, the company successively acquired 32.49% equity of Hubei Huimin Technology and 80% equity of Hunan Jindao and jointly established the Southern Japonica Rice Research Institute. The above investment M&A targets can form a good complement with the company in terms of product structure and regional market expansion, further enhancing the company's market competitiveness and the growth rate of its main business.
The gradual landing of overseas mergers and acquisitions is expected to bring about the leap-forward development of corn seed research and development. Recently, the company's acquisition of Dow AgroScience's seed business project in Brazil has gradually landed. In the short term, on the one hand, this merger can greatly enrich the company's high-quality germplasm resources, which will facilitate the selection of varieties suitable for the southwest corn region in the short term. It is conducive to broadening the genetic basis, creating new germplasm and heterogeneous models; on the other hand, learning and replicating Dow's commercial breeding strategies and procedural breeding systems will help improve the efficiency and systemicity of research and improvement of foreign commercial inbred lines. Accelerate the construction of a streamlined breeding system. The company is also actively looking for quality M&A targets around the world, and corn seed research and development capabilities are expected to achieve leapfrog development.
The agricultural service has achieved initial results, and the performance contribution has been gradually released: the company has comprehensively promoted the planning and construction of the agricultural service system around the “plant operation + agricultural serviceâ€. This year's agricultural service has become one of the important sources of contribution performance. In the first half of 2017, land development has contributed a profit of about 40 million yuan. At the same time, the company is cooperating with the US company's Gaochun Company to use biomass materials for land remediation. The test results show that the repair effect is good and the market prospect is broad. It is expected to contribute 10 million yuan profit this year.
Investment suggestion: At present, the new series of Longping Hi-Tech is in a period of rapid expansion, and the quantity and quality of the reserve varieties will rise, and the rice seeds will maintain rapid growth. With the launch of highly competitive new products, corn seeds are expected to bottom out in this sales season. In the long run, as the only company in China with a complete commercial breeding system, the company's rice research and development strength industry is far ahead, while corn R&D is expected to achieve leap-forward development under the gradual landing of overseas mergers and acquisitions, and the leading position of the seed industry will be continuously consolidated. Therefore, we expect the company's sales revenue in 2017-19 to be 29.37, 39.61 and 4.349 billion yuan, up 27.7%, 28.1% and 15.6% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company is 9.04, 12.18 and 1.464 billion yuan, up 80.43% year-on-year. 34.68% and 20.17%, corresponding to diluted EPS of 0.72, 0.97 and 1.17 yuan, corresponding to the valuation of 30.15, 22.38 and 18.63 times. Continue to firmly configure the agricultural core leader Baima Longping High Tech!
Risk warning events: New product promotion is less than expected; overseas mergers and acquisitions are uncertain.
Denghai Seed Industry: 17-18 planting season industry or reverse, waiting for the dragon to dance
Denghai Seed Industry 002041
Research institute: Ping An Securities analyst: Li Yamin Date of writing: 2017-08-23
In the 16/17 season, the price of corn was sluggish and the area was reduced. The income in the first half of the year declined. The company's gross profit margin was 46.28%, down 5.7 percentage points from the same period of the previous year. The main reason was that the cost reduction was less than the decline in revenue; the inventory gradually contracted, and the inventory level for the semi-annual report was 560 million yuan, down by 76 million yuan compared with the first quarter report of 640 million yuan. The subsidiary's Denghai Pioneer operating income was 230 million yuan, down 72% year-on-year. Considering that the price of corn in the 16/17 season is at the bottom, it seriously affects the farmers' enthusiasm for planting, so the consolidated statement and the decline in subsidiary income are included in the expectation. The company's fourth quarter and next year's revenue will depend on the expectations of farmers' corn harvesting income from August this year to March next year. The company's hybrid corn seed market share is more than 10%. If only the summer corn market share is considered higher, as the leader of the corn seed industry, it will be significantly affected by the industry downturn, but once the industry reverses next year, its performance elasticity is expected to be considerable.
New varieties are constantly emerging to provide guarantee for the company's sustainable development. During the reporting period, 18 new corn varieties independently researched and developed by the company were approved by the National Quality Audit Committee, including 7 northeast and north China spring maize varieties, 7 Huanghuai sea summer corn varieties, 3 spring/summer varieties and 1 southwest spring sowing. Variety. Among them, in the production trial of similar varieties in the Huang-Huai-Hai area, the company occupies 8 seats in the top 20 list of leading varieties; in the Donghua North production test, Denghai 123, Denghai 181, Laiyu 179, Denghai 516 yield performance Leading the rankings, providing the impetus for the subsequent development of new growth points.
Strengthen the incentives of subsidiaries and reserve germplasm resources. During the reporting period, the company increased its capital in Heilongjiang Denghai, Jilin Denghai, Shanxi Denghai and Liaoning Denghai and sold part of the equity to the management. The company invested in the establishment of Shandong Denghai Shengfeng, Shandong Denghai Yuyu and Henan Denghai Zhongyan, and continuously reserves research and development and marketing talents.
Corn prices are picking up and new corn supplies are tightening. Looking at corn futures prices, the current price is about 1,730 yuan / ton, up about 250 yuan / ton compared with the same period last year. It is expected that the yield per acre of corn in 2018 will increase by 220 yuan compared with 2016. The two-year reduction in area will also bring tighter supply of new corn. n Alternative crop prices have fallen. In the previous Danghai Seed Industry In-depth Report, “Investing in the Industry, Reversing the Industry,†we emphasized that the decline in income from alternative crop soybeans and peanut planting will affect farmers' enthusiasm for planting. We understand that red beans, black beans, sesame and other miscellaneous grains are also corn substitute crops. We have found that the prices of these varieties have been falling in recent years, which means that the relative income of planting is narrowing.
Short-term attention to the company's Q3 advance receipts and inventory changes, medium and long-term attention to corn price boom. We forecast that the net profit of Denghai Seeds in 2017, 2018 and 2019 will be 4.0, 6.3 and 770 million yuan, up by -8.6%, 56% and 22%, corresponding to PE29.1 times, 18.7 times and 15.3 times. In 2018, the company's valuation is significantly underestimated compared with the valuation of similar companies. Wande unanimously expects EPS of RMB60.6 and RMB0.78 in 2018 and 2019. We believe that the market has a large expectation difference for the company and maintains a “strongly recommended†rating.
Risk warning: the risk of large fluctuations in corn prices; the risk of policy changes.
Pleco: New products are listed one after another, and R&D strength is strong to boost performance
Pleco 603566
Research Institute: Southwest Securities Analyst: Zhu Huizhen Date of Compilation: 2017-07-19
Event: We recently conducted a survey of Plex and conducted an in-depth discussion on the company's future development strategy.
The potential variety of piglets is coming soon, which is a strong driving force for growth. Due to the environmental protection policy and the “first hit and then make up†policy, the structure of the pig breeding market has been adjusted, the scale of farming has increased, and the size of the vaccine market has expanded rapidly. It is expected that the market size of the pig ring market will reach 2.5 billion in the future. The scale is about 5.5 billion yuan. In the reserve of pig ring series products, the company has a series of products such as porcine circovirus type 2 inactivated vaccine and pig ring subunit vaccine. The production technology of new varieties is in the leading position in the country and will sell the company's future pig vaccine. Provide strong support for the company's performance growth. In terms of foot-and-mouth disease vaccine, the new generation of recombinant foot-and-mouth disease subunit genetic engineering vaccine developed by the company and Bio-shares is expected to be on sale in 18 years. It is expected that the company will be the first to be the 8th enterprise with the qualification for foot-and-mouth disease vaccine production.
The upgrade advantages of new varieties of poultry are significant, effectively consolidating the leading position. In 2017, the poultry farming industry continued to be sluggish, and it was under pressure to produce a large impact on the sales of poultry. However, the company's two genetically engineered vaccines launched in 2016 have effectively ensured its leading position in the poultry vaccine field. In 2017, the company obtained the Newcastle Disease, Avian Influenza (H9 subtype), Infectious Bursal Disease Triple Inactivated Vaccine, Chicken Newcastle Disease, Avian Influenza (H9 Subtype) Second Inactivated Vaccine New Veterinary Drug Certificate, and still have a series of reserve varieties. Applying for a new veterinary drug certificate will continue to lead. At present, the domestic avian influenza vaccine market is about 1 billion yuan. It is conservatively estimated that the company can obtain a market share of 20% and contribute about 200 million yuan in revenue.
Continue to invest in strengthening research and development, and lay a diagnostic market to create new profit growth points. In 2016, the company invested 58.84 million yuan in research and development, a year-on-year increase of 40%. The proportion of R&D investment in the current year's revenue was 10%. It is at a high level in the industry. With the support of continuous R&D investment, the company has entered the R&D results since 2016. Harvest period. The market size of the United States in the field of animal disease diagnosis is about 1 billion US dollars. Due to the complex domestic disease and the large amount of animals, China has a huge market for diagnosis. If the company's follow-up diagnostic reagents are successfully put on the market, it is expected to achieve a significant increase in performance and increase the company's profits.
Earnings forecasts and investment advice. The EPS for 2017-2019 is expected to be 0.72 yuan, 0.98 yuan, and 1.30 yuan, respectively, corresponding to 32 times, 23 times and 18 times for PE. Considering the average valuation of the insurance industry is 30-35 times, we believe that the company's technology research and development level is in the leading position in the country, and the new product launch is strong, giving 35 times PE in 2017, target price of 25.20 yuan, first coverage, giving “overweight†rating .
Risk warning: new varieties are promoted or lower than expected, variety research and development is lower than expected, and downstream market fluctuation risk.
Bio-shares: the leader in the vaccine industry, product storage, accelerated growth
Biological shares 600201
Research institute: Guojin Securities analyst: Wei Li Date of writing: 2017-08-09
Investment logic
The company is the leader in the domestic animal vaccine industry. The R&D capability is leading the country, benefiting from the accelerated growth of the domestic aquaculture industry, and the growth rate of the vaccine market is significant. At the same time, with the continuous development of the company's technology research and development, it has gradually formed a very high technical barrier, which is expected to further consolidate its market position and occupy the high-end vaccine market.
Foot-and-mouth disease is the commanding height of the industry. From a long-term perspective, the increasing proportion of scale will be the main theme of the industry. The basic situation of retail investors exiting and leading enterprises will not change. The scale of speed will accelerate the penetration rate of vaccines, and the vaccine industry will continue to expand rapidly. In July 2016, the government promulgated the policy of “first hit and then make up†and started the pilot work. In the future, it will promote the sales of the foot-and-mouth disease market, and the market prospect is broad.
How to make a foot-and-mouth disease leader? Bio-shares is an enterprise with advanced antigen purification and concentration technology, excellent virus strain, accurate detection system and the establishment of industry standards. It is the first enterprise in China to obtain the sales license of the national market seedling direct sales business. According to the company's announcement, in 2016, Bio-shares ranked first in the industry in the foot-and-mouth disease market, with a 58% share.
The variety of vaccines is blooming and the life is shining. We are firmly optimistic about the bio-shares in addition to a series of fist products of the foot-and-mouth disease, the company's new products are still being introduced, and across the pig, cattle, sheep, poultry and other fields. Such as cloth disease (domestic no competing products), pig ring (Billinger), BVD + IBR (the first in China) and other varieties, its potential market space of more than 10 billion yuan. Among them, the disease and ring varieties will take the lead in adding flexibility to the company's performance growth this year and next.
Investment Advice
We believe that with the large-scale farming, the demand for the industry is growing. Foot-and-mouth disease is the crown jewel in the industry, and the market demand for seedlings is also expanding rapidly. We are optimistic about the bio-shares of the leading companies in the foot-and-mouth disease.
Valuation
We expect the company's net profit for the year of 2017/18/19 to be 9.02/10.89/1.404 billion yuan, EPS is 1.40/1.70/2.19 yuan, giving 32-35 times PE in 2017, target price 44.80-49.00 yuan, with 30%-42 % space, first coverage, giving a "buy" rating.
risk
Vaccine sales failed to meet expectations, market penetration rate was slower than expected, and equity in May 2017
Restricted sales of 3,886,400 shares to lift the ban on circulation risks. In September 2017, the number of shares issued by private placement institutions was 40.32 million shares.
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