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Haitong Securities Open-end Fund Weekly (2017-05-21): Market short-term upside space is limited, balanced allocation waiting opportunities
Financial product research team Chen Yao
Investment points:
Last week's market review: A-shares oscillated upwards, gold prices and oil prices rose
Last week's fund market review: Stock bond funds rose, crude oil theme QDII performed well
Future investment strategy: The market has limited short-term upside potential, balanced waiting for opportunities
Fund market update
Risk Warning: The performance review part of this report is based on the objective analysis of the fund's historical performance. The funds involved do not constitute investment suggestions. The investment proposal part needs to be alert to the uncertainty of monetary policy, securities market related policies and the impact of RMB depreciation.
1. Last week's market review: A-shares oscillated upwards, gold prices and oil prices rose
The A-share market fluctuated and the growth style performed better than the value . For the whole week, as of May 19, 2017, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3090.63 points, up 0.23% for the whole week; Shenzhen Component Index closed at 9709.96 points, up 0.55% for the whole week.
In terms of style, this week's style conversion, growth style performance is better than value . In terms of major indices, the SSE 50 index fell 0.58% for the week, the CSI 300 index rose 0.55%, the CSI 500 index rose 1.90%, and the GEM and SME board indexes rose 1.49% and 1.45% respectively. Last week, the A-share market had a total turnover of 2.04 trillion yuan, and the transaction volume increased by 0.07 trillion yuan from the previous week. In terms of industry, the 29 industries under the CITIC First-Class Industry Classification, except for banking, banking, and construction, all rose. The best performing segments for the whole week were comprehensive, food and beverage, computer, petroleum, petrochemical, and electronic components, with an increase of 4.25. %, 4.04%, 3.69%, 3.06%, and 2.67%. The worst performing sectors in the week were construction, banking, and non-bank finance, with decreases of -2.25%, -1.87%, and -0.83%, respectively.
The bond market fluctuated. Last week, the bond market began to rise, but due to lack of liquidity in the market, the 3Y-5Y and 7Y-10Y yields of the first and second-tier bonds of the national debt were upside down, and the yield curve of the government bond showed M type. Specifically, 1-year Treasury bonds rose 8BP to 3.48%, 1-year Treasury bonds rose 10BP to 4.18%; 10-year Treasury bonds fell 3BP to 3.63%, and 10-year Treasury bonds fell 5BP to 4.32%. Last week, the trend of high- and low-grade credit bonds was significantly different. The yield of AAA-class corporate bonds fell slightly by 2BP, while the average yield of AA-class corporate bonds rose by 4BP and the average yield of urban investment bonds rose by 8BP. In terms of major indices, the China Net Bonds Net Price Index fell 0.06% last week, the China Bond National Debt Total Net Index fell 0.23%, the China Bond Financial Bonds Total Net Index rose 0.08%, and the China Bond Corporate Bonds Net Index fell 0.35%. . In the convertible bond market, the CSI convertible bond index rose by 0.41%, and the number of individual stocks rose more or less. The top five gainers were steam model convertible bonds, Fuxin EB, Goer, Blue Label and Yiling EB, which rose by 3.21% respectively. , 3.18%, 3.11%, 2.82%, and 2.78%.
US stocks fell, and oil prices rose. Last week's "Bomb Trump" incident triggered market concerns about US political risks, causing US stocks to fall sharply and risk aversion to heat up. US stocks rebounded slightly after the risk was released in the second half of the week, but US stocks closed down throughout the week. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq index fell by 0.45%, 0.38% and 0.61% respectively. In the European market, the French CAC40 index fell 1.50%, the German DAX index fell 1.03%, and the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.48%. The Asia-Pacific market was mixed, with the Nikkei 225 index down 1.47%, the Taiwan Weighted Index down 0.39%, and the Korea Composite Index up 0.11%. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index edged up 0.07%.
In terms of commodities , the market expects crude oil exporters to extend production cuts next week, and the sharp decline in the US dollar has increased the attractiveness of dollar-denominated oil. Last week, energy commodities rose 4.58% for the week, oil and NYMEX crude oil. Light crude oil, Brent crude oil and ICE oil increased by 5.28%, 5.73%, 5.21%, 5.33% and 6.01% respectively.
Last week, the US dollar index fell by 2.09%. Due to the political turmoil in Washington, the price of safe-haven assets rose, and the price of precious metals rose.
COMEX gold rose 2.27% for the week and COMEX silver rose 2.31%.
2. Last week's fund market review: Stock bond funds rose, crude oil theme QDII performed well
Last week, the stock funds and bond funds rose, the yield of the money fund decreased slightly from the previous week, and the gold ETF and its connected funds rose. In overseas markets, QDII share and QDII bond funds all fell.
Funds that re-allocated the oil and gas industry and growth style industries performed better. Last week, A-shares rebounded, and equity funds rose 1.19% overall. Among them, index stock funds rose 1.14%, active stock open funds rose 1.31%, slightly better than index funds; hybrid funds rose 0.65%, of which 2 Only traditional closed-end funds rose by an average of 0.61%. In terms of single fund, the market hotspots were more dispersed last week, and the concept of combustible ice has sprung up, pushing the petroleum and petrochemical and oil service industries higher, and the funds in the oil and gas industry have performed better, such as the booming industry boom; and the re-equipment of food, beverage, medicine and other stable Funds in the growth industry also have better performance, such as ICBC Credit Suisse's pension industry, Yinhua Shengshi selection, Bank of Communications strategy returns, etc.; funds that are heavily equipped with media, electronic components and other aggressive growth industries also have good performance, such as Huashang New Power, Bo Shiyu Flexible and flexible, Ping An Dahua Strategy Pioneer, Guolianan Technology Power, etc. In addition, Huaxia Xinjinshun A, Chuangjinxinxin Power, Xincheng Xinwang Reward A or due to large redemption made its performance ahead of last week.
The convertible bond base and equity assets are better matched to the electronic debt, pharmaceutical and other industries . Last week, bond funds rose 0.08% overall, of which the most purely debt-only debt base rose 0.01%, the benchmark debt base rose 0.04%, and the bond-backed funds that can invest in equity assets rose 0.21% last week. Bond bond funds rose 0.61% last week. On the basis of the previous week, A-shares fluctuated upwards last week, and the bond-backed bonds that can be invested in the stock market and equipped with equity assets in electronic components and pharmaceuticals also performed well last week, such as Fuanda's enhanced income and easy return of Yifangda. In addition, last week benefited from the rise in positive stocks, and some convertible bonds have a good performance, such as the people's livelihood plus silver convertible bonds, Jianxin convertible bonds, long-term convertible bonds. In addition, Haifutong Ruiyi or its large-value redemption made its net value rise last week.
The annualized rate of return of the money fund fell slightly to 3.66% . The average annualized return of the Monetary Fund last week was 3.66%, down from the previous week. Among them, the bases with better performance include the people's livelihood plus cash add-on, CEIBS, and Zhongrong cash. In terms of financial management debt, the annualized earnings of short-term and medium-term financial bonds last week were 3.77% and 3.38%, respectively. Among them, Jiashi's three-month wealth management, BOC's financial management for 90 days, and Guangfa's wealth management for 30 days.
QDII funds investing in crude oil themes performed better. Last week, the equity QDII fund fell by 0.47%. On the basics , QDII funds, which mainly invested in the crude oil sector, performed well last week due to the sharp rebound in crude oil prices last week, such as Cathay's bulk commodities LOF, Southern crude oil, and E Fund crude oil. In terms of solid revenue, QDII bond funds declined slightly by 0.05% last week.
The gold ETF rebounded . Commodity funds rose 1.33% last week.
3. Future investment strategy: The market has limited short-term upside potential, balanced waiting for opportunities
Fundamental: The economy is slowly cooling down and the inflation trend is diverging. Since May, the growth rate of demand for downstream real estate and automobiles has remained sluggish, and the growth rate of power generation in the middle and upper reaches has continued to cool. However, considering the short-term economic downturn in May after the speech of the authoritative person in April last year, the Haitong macro team believes that under the low base effect, the economy will not fall sharply in May 17 and will show a slow cooling trend. In addition, the Haitong macro team believes that the future inflation trend will be significantly different: on the one hand, although food prices continue to fall, but due to the low base in the same period last year, the CPI will rebound slightly from the low level. The PPI is subject to a high base effect, and the year-on-year increase will continue to fall. In addition, within the PPI, the coal price, which has weakened the capacity, continued to fall, while the steel price benefited from the policy of combating the strip steel.
Funding: The currency continues to be tight. Last week, the central bank reversed the repurchase of 410 billion yuan, the reverse repurchase expired 250 billion yuan, the treasury cash deposits 80 billion, the MLF expired 179.5 billion, the open market net investment of 60.5 billion, the capital interest rate fell slightly. Last week, R007 averaged 4BP to 3.17%, and R001 averaged 9BP to 2.76%. The US dollar weakened sharply last week, the yuan rebounded slightly against the US dollar, and the offshore RMB exchange rate rose to 6.88. The central bank’s currency has continued to tighten this year, and the attitude has remained basically unchanged so far. Although the central bank re-expanded about 400 billion in April, the most important bank reserve assets fell again by 250 billion. Haitong's macro team estimated that the ultra-storage rate at the end of April fell to a six-year low of 1.2%, and when the central bank launched it in May. Intermittently, this means that the money market is generally tight, and it is difficult for the currency interest rate to drop significantly.
From the March data observation, the bank loan interest rate has shown a significant rebound, which means that subsequent monetary tightening will continue to be transmitted to the real economy.
Domestic policy: companies reduce expenses and reduce burdens. The executive meeting of the State Council stated that it will introduce a number of new measures to reduce fees, further reduce the service charges for enterprises and reduce the cost of energy used for logistics, and pay attention to the typical behavior of all kinds of unreasonable charges, and handle the fees of enterprises. Publicity system. The Prime Minister called the enterprise to reduce the burden of fees and charges is a targeted "directional regulation", the purpose is to further promote the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry and effectively revitalize the real economy.
Overseas Economy: Trump's “Breakout†has hit the global market, and the Eurozone economy has recovered extensively. After the US Federal Bureau of Investigation's director Komi was dismissed, Trump was directed to Russia to leak last week. The market worried that this may lead to Trump being impeached, the tax reform infrastructure plan ran aground, US stocks plummeted, and the US dollar index fell below 98. The risky assets of gold and US debt rose sharply. However, the impeachment of Trump is not easy. First, more than half of the members of the House of Representatives agree to launch impeachment, and then more than two-thirds of the members of the Senate must be found guilty of the president. The Republican Party is currently dominant in both houses, and most Republicans are still on the side of Trump. In addition, on Friday, ECB President Mario Draghi said in his speech in Tel Aviv that the recovery in the euro zone is resilient and that the countries and regions that are recovering are becoming more widespread. With the recovery of the Eurozone economy, the market has heated up discussions about the ECB's cut in QE.
Overall, the market oscillated upward last week. In foreign countries, Trump's “leakage door†triggered fears that the market might be impeached. The global market was hit, the price of safe-haven assets rose, and the panic index soared. Domestically, the economic uncertainty this year is significantly higher than last year. Therefore, it is necessary to grasp the certainty of the policy. At present, the index fluctuates within a narrow range around the central upper rail. It needs to pay attention to the support of the 3056-point central lower rail. From the calendar effect, although Before the Dragon Boat Festival, there was a slight increase in the market, but the probability of a market decline in the week after the holiday was over 90%. Except for 2009, all other years fell, so it is still necessary to wait patiently for investment opportunities.
Bond market: 1 interest rate debt: the regulatory turning point is not present, and it still needs patience . Last week, the bond market began to rise, but due to lack of liquidity in the market, the 3Y-5Y and 7Y-10Y yields of the first and second-tier bonds of the national debt were upside down, and the yield curve of the government bond showed M type. The fundamental inflection point has emerged, but the regulatory inflection point and the monetary policy inflection point are difficult to achieve in the short term, and the regulatory attitude is difficult to relax before the leverage is effective. Based on the judgment of the supervision window period, Haitong Bond Team believes that it will be a more comfortable window of matching in the coming months. In the long run, the economic downturn is still a trend, and it is recommended to pay due attention to the matching opportunities of medium and long-term bonds. 17 years is the year of supervision. The Haitong bond team's point of view is that before the end of the year, the bond market will be in a cycle of “regulatory strengthening – bond market adjustment – ​​regulatory easing – bond market rebound – regulation is strengthened againâ€, it is difficult to have trend opportunities for trading. In terms of the plate, the band rhythm is difficult to grasp, and it is necessary to be patient when you carefully drive the ship. 2 Credit bonds: The regulatory shock will continue . Last week, the trend of high- and low-grade credit bonds was significantly different. The yield of AAA-class corporate bonds fell slightly by 2BP, while the average yield of AA-class corporate bonds rose by 4BP and the average yield of urban investment bonds rose by 8BP. Recently, interest rate debts have stabilized, but credit bonds have still been adjusted sharply. In particular, the medium- and low-grade long-term varieties have a larger adjustment, and the spreads between grades have significantly expanded. The early stage of the adjustment was affected by the emotional impact and liquidity, and the interest rate bond was first adjusted. However, with the implementation of supervision and the contraction of the foreign party, the time and space for the adjustment of credit bonds will be more due to the higher proportion of credit bonds in the subcontracting. Large, regulatory shocks are slow variables for credit bonds, and the Haitong bond team believes that there is still room for upside spreads, especially for poorly qualified varieties.
Fund investment: Stock-mixed funds : Last week, the market fluctuated upwards. In the first half of the week, the market rebounded. In the latter half of the week, the market fell back. As the Dragon Boat Festival holiday approached, the market activity continued to decline. It is difficult to support the index to break through, considering the calendar year after the festival. The market is not performing well and investors are advised to control the risks. Therefore, in the short run, investors still need to wait patiently for market opportunities. In the medium term, we believe that the future is a volatile city with a slow rise in the center. This trend is expected to continue, and the superposition of reforms will promote risk appetite. Therefore, we can continue to hold in the short-term, and we will continue to strive for stability in the medium term, with the value style as the bottom position, and use the growth to gain revenue. It is recommended to maintain a balanced mix of styles, focusing on the fund manager's stock picking ability and risk control capabilities.
Bond funds: At present, the bond market has risen slightly. However, since the slow release of the central bank in May, the money market will remain tight, the monetary interest rate will not be able to show a large decline, and the financial supervision will continue to strengthen, and banks may continue to shrink. Therefore, for fund investors, it is recommended to focus on observations in the short term and participate cautiously. Monetary Fund: There are no trending investment opportunities when long-term capital interest rates remain low. Commodity Fund: From the perspective of long-term investment, it can be properly allocated to gold ETF funds.
4. Fund market update
Huatai Asset Management Public Fund Business officially opened, and the approved brokerage company is the first currency ETF fund
After more than nine months of winning the public fund license, Huatai Securities Asset Management Funds officially opened. A few days ago, Huatai Securities Asset Management’s first public fund, Huatai Zijin Tiantian Gold Trading Money Market Fund, was officially approved. It is understood that this is also the first currency ETF fund in the brokerage industry.
In August last year, Huatai Securities issued a notice stating that the CSRC approved the qualification of the wholly-owned subsidiary Huatai Securities Asset Management Public Fund Management. Up to now, there are 12 brokerage companies or capital management companies that have obtained the qualifications for public fund management business, namely, Dongzheng Asset Management, Huarong Securities, Shanxi Securities, Guodu Securities, Zheshang Securities Asset Management, Bohai Huijin, Dongxing Securities, Gaohua. Securities, BOC International Securities, Caitong Securities Asset Management, Changjiang Securities Securities.
It is worth noting that after the approval of the first public fund products of Huatai Assets, only 12 of the 12 brokers or their subsidiaries that obtained the public fund license were not approved for public offerings in August 2015. After obtaining the public offering qualification in 2014, the first public fund of Bohai Huijin Asset Management was approved on May 12 this year. At the same time, the brokerage management team applying for the public offering license has grown. Among them, Guojin Securities and Qilu Asset Management have submitted application materials for public fund management qualifications in October and December last year respectively.
Judging from the situation of the securities companies that have obtained the qualifications for public offerings or the securities companies, in terms of the number of products, there are more than 20 public offerings established by Dongzheng Asset Management, with a cumulative scale of more than 36 billion, accounting for half of the public funds of the securities business management system. . Except for Dongzheng Asset Management, the number of public offerings of other brokerages is in single digits. Specific to the product type, the current low-risk category of fixed-income products accounted for a larger proportion, followed by hybrid funds.
The first transformation of institutional custom fund landing
Recently, Everbright Prudential's semi-annual open-end debt-based announcement announced that it will be transformed into a large-scale regular-open bond-initiated fund for Everbright. This is the first officially transformed institutional custom fund since the Securities Regulatory Commission issued the “Institutional Supervision Report†on March 17.
Last year, public funds flourished, and the growth of more than 400 billion yuan came from commissioned funds. The proportion of funds held by a single investor in this type of fund is too concentrated, and the proportion of partial holdings is even more than 99%. Since last year, such products have suffered a large amount of redemption of institutional funds, and the abnormal fluctuations in net value caused frequently.
Such funds have received the attention of the regulatory authorities due to the limited independence of managers, the liquidity risk of products, and the opacity of ordinary investors. On March 17, the CSRC issued the “Regulations on Institutional Supervision†(hereinafter referred to as the “Noticeâ€) to the public fund managers and custodians, and imposed strict regulatory requirements on the customized funds. It is strictly forbidden to channel the public funds.
The "Notice" mainly includes three contents: 1. If the proportion of the fund holdings of a newly established fund is 50% or more, it shall be closed or operated regularly (the periodic opening period shall not be less than 3 months) and shall be adopted. The form of the sponsored fund shall not be offered to the individual investor for public offering; 2. If the proportion of a single investor has reached or exceeded 50%, the subscription of the single investor shall not continue to be accepted; More than 20% of fund products are subject to disclosure.
According to public information, Everbright Prudential's semi-annual open-end bond-initiated fund will operate in a half-year fixed-opening manner. The fund manager uses its own funds to subscribe for a fund of 10 million yuan, with a holding period of not less than three years. The fund's prospectus has disclosed that a single investor's share of funds can reach or exceed 50% and is not available for sale to individual investors.
Since the "Notice" clearly stated that a single investor holds more than 50% of the shares, the manager can no longer accept institutional purchases. In order to undertake incremental funds, it is expected that more customized funds will continue to transform in the future. However, the threshold of the sponsored fund is as high as 10 million yuan. This is intended to control the scale of the fund's customized funds. This is also the biggest constraint for the transformation of the small and medium-sized fund companies' outsourcing customized funds.
New product situation last week
A total of 16 new funds were established last week, including 1 money market fund, 6 flexible allocation funds, 2 partial debt hybrid funds, 4 ordinary equity funds, 1 enhanced index fund, and medium and long term pure debt. Fund 2 only.
Last week, the newly established fund had an average subscription period of 35.14 days. The shortest subscription period was Penghua Jucaitong, and the subscription period was 4 days. The average fund-raising share of the 16 funds was 387 million, and the total share of the fund was 6.186 billion. Among them, Harvest's leading technology was the largest, with 1.168 billion.
Fund dividends this week
In the next few days, there will be 4 funds registered in the next few days. Among them, the most noteworthy fund is Anxin's steady growth, with a bonus of 4.8 yuan for every 10 shares. The specific income distribution time is as follows: equity registration date: 2017-05-23; ex-dividend date: 2017-05-23; dividend distribution date: 2017-05-25.
5. risk warning
The performance review part of this report is based on the objective analysis of the fund's historical performance. The funds involved do not constitute investment proposals; the investment proposal part needs to be alert to the uncertainty of monetary policy, securities market related policies and the impact of RMB depreciation.
Sina statement: Sina's posting of this article for the purpose of transmitting more information does not mean agreeing with its views or confirming its description. Article content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate on this basis at their own risk.
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